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When is the right time to trade?
One of the main myths about finance is that to be successful in the long-run one must hold on to one’s gains until the end of the year and cut one’s losses by early November. I strongly disagree with this because finance is one of the most unpredictable and there is absolutely no way to know when it will end in one’s favor.
If I’m right, the first question that should be answered is: when is the right time to do it? If we know that next year’s tax rate is going to be lower, why not start trading a month earlier? If we know that next month we’re getting a raise, what’s the point of waiting until the end of the month?
In general: when do people think it’s the right time to start trading? For stocks in particular, are there any indicators you can look at to determine the right time to buy or sell?
I’m going to answer the question “when is the right time to start trading” using the terminology used in classic style trading.
Like any other area of business the answer is: “When the opportunity arises”. If you have an “opportunity” in some area of your life and you can find a way to quantify it then it is entirely appropriate to trade based on that quantifiable information and then be judged on the size of your gains/losses.
As an example you can make money trading the following:
If there is something you know which will make interest rates higher in the future by some amount. You can work out how much that will be and when it will be and you can profit from that difference.
If you know there is an over-valued stock which will fall in price, you can buy it and take advantage of the price movement.
Likewise if you know there is a under-valued stock which has a huge “block” then you can sell and make a lot of money.
When is the right time to trade in the stock market?
When the opportunities are there.
That’s pretty much it. I would not wait for any indicators. Wait until you get a “buy/sell” signal. That could be as early as three days, or as late as a few months.
As a caveat, I would
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